Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that split the nation and triggered chaos, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the shortage of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or campaigners want to engage even with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer endorses unification or the current situation. Both authors two pieces that strive for impartiality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and societal figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions range over national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they prefer unity but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent official who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will in the end lose but both parties has possesses something to learn from the other's arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
